Slow and Steady Continued
Is the market finally bracing itself for the big annual range retest?
Good evening!
I know it hasn’t quite been an eventful week but while it may not seem like we’ve progressed much, we actually have. To kick off the week, we had our big stall off our neutral ranges of 7611-7614-7616 and were unable to clear to core ranges of 7621+ which triggered volatility back down. This was very easy to spot considering where we opened, right in a neutral state at 7607; not quite above 7611 and not quite beneath 7605! The market knew EXACTLY what it was doing opening there… keeping HIGH high odds of staying stuck in those MUTLIPLE inside structures! How calculated and sophisticated is that? Very.
The 100 point theory worked insanely well this past week, knowing that while we opened neutral, we weren’t at much risk until 7550’s were retested and that is what could trigger volatility back down to the previous zone (7488-7532). We’d be playing with fire if we failed our key core calculated areas of 7521-7524-7528, so sustaining above and specifically early week, was crucial. This was only a probability if 7551-7555-7558-7561 was lost. We did exactly that, stalled neutral (7611-7614), reversed back to 7551 and breached slightly to 7547, then came back again to retest 7611-7614 neutral ranges and failed, triggering yet again another back test of our 7551-7558 areas, failing this time and breaking into the channel and JUST above the top of the zone at 7531.50. This was a great upper core hold/channel hold and especially ahead of mid week.
We had actually tested those lows overnight on Monday which allowed markets the odds to retest 7611-7614 and attempt to reclaim yet again. We stalled (shocker) and then pinned right at the bottom of the zone Tuesday, at 7591. This left high odds of being zone-bound on Wednesday with slight odds of back-testing core areas of 7571-7578-7581 etc. Except this time around, we really couldn’t afford to head back to the means (7550’s-7560’s) as that would heavily increase volatility mid week and after already having broken that area twice prior. So, we held right off our core ranges as anticipated today - 7570’s-7580’s, which is EXACTLY what we needed to get back to where we left off on Friday, 7620’s!
We had a great core to core break from 7571-7626, pinning us at 7616 which is a lot more progressive for a mid week pin in a bull-neutral area versus our weekly open of 7607. This gives us about a 9 point advantage now, which is what we lacked the week prior. This also helped create a better based above 7530’s-7540’s-7550’s-7560’s and now core, 7570’s-7580’s. Ideally from here, we now need to go back to square one. Sustainment of 7611 becomes vital and of course retesting 7628-7632 to try and progress to our annual ranges of 7638-7644-7648.
Our area of risk played out quite well from the weekly report, which is where we can now recycle it to the upside for support:
RISK AREA FOR WEEK
Failure
7588 - 7595
Re-triggers
7571 → 7578 → 7581
Lower Means
7551 → 7558 → 7561
Channel Risk
7538→ 7544 → 7549
Failure of channel support can re-open:
7520 → 7522 → 7525 → 7528 OR 7505-7511-7514 relative to where we open the week
Now this leaves us in a very good position to close off our week and leaves the remaining conditions in play! Let’s recap quickly, shall we?