Sticky Summer

More inside ranges or structural breakage?

Good afternoon!

It’s been a very interesting few weeks as we’ve somehow progressed yet still haven’t fully achieved or retested 7640’s annual range, which is what is keeping us stuck beneath 7640 and above 7300, 73548-7354-7361 to be specific. While we were successful in triggering our 7622-7632 range, we stalled 7632 and reverted back beneath our key 7571-7578-7581 support, creating volatility into Fridays close after our channel (7532-7548) failed to hold.

We knew we had odds to re-trigger core areas of 7521-7524-7528 but this could re-test the entire zone back down to 7488 which was the exact result late Friday. However, since we had mainly core to core moves, there were higher odds that if 7520’s failed, we’d instead head to our core areas near 7471-7478-7481-7485 once again. We triggered 7473 and retraced back near our 7508-7511 into the close but couldn’t quite hold, failing to regain 7520’s.

Considering the zone was re-triggered and pinned at 7495 area, we have some odds of opening in the zone but would actually benefit opening at core areas instead, as this could reset us to retest 7520’s at the very least.

This slight volatility has also put some buying interest and demand on oil which has been steady over the past week and as mentioned the week prior, we can continue to trade crude as a hedge.

Let’s recap the end of week and set some conditions for the week ahead.